An app which evaluates the Covid-19 spread in your area shows what tier you’re likely to be in when they are reviewed next week.
The ZOE Covid Symptom Study app updates regularly, presenting data from ZOE and King’s College London as an easy-to-read dashboard.
Working with the ‘prevalence rate’ of coronavirus – that is, cases per 100,000 of the population – it evaluates every area in England, reports the Mirror.
It also breaks down the rate among people aged 60 and above.
The data is solid, as the ZOE Covid Symptom Study report is presented to the Government each day.
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The latest report shows that the majority of England has seen cases per 100,000 of the population fall or remain the same.
Currently, the app reveals ‘subregions’ in Tier 2 where the case rate is still rising.
They are Suffolk; the combined ‘subregion’ of Reading, Wokingham, Bracknell Forest, Windsor and Maidenhead and West Berkshire; and the ‘subregion’ of Wiltshire and Swindon.
If cases continue to rise in these areas, they could find themselves moved up to Tier 3 next week.
As for the Tier 3 ‘subregion’ of Warwickshire, Coventry and Solihull, cases are showing no signs of slowing, meaning they are unlikely to come out of the toughest tier at the review.
The data used by the ZOE Covid Symptom Study UK Infection Survey is based on around one million weekly reporters and the proportion of newly symptomatic users who have positive swab tests.
Professor Tim Spector, Professor of Genetic Epidemiology of King’s College London and Principal Investigator of the ZOE Covid Symptom Study app, is leading the team and tweeted on Friday: “We launched today on the ZOE app, a complex dashboard about the stats for English tiers based on the govt criteria on prevalence, trends and NHS capacity.”
According to the professor, the team plans on simplifying the format of the data, but it is currently available to all users who self-report on the app.
England’s R rate of transmission is at around 0.8 across England, according to Prof Spector’s findings, but it is above 1 in Wales.
It also shows that London is now seeing more new cases than in the North, where new infections have remained stable.
The figures showed 20,497 daily new symptomatic cases of the virus in the UK on average over the two weeks up to November 29, excluding care homes.
This compares to 29,311 daily new symptomatic cases a week ago – and more than 42,000 six weeks ago, researchers said.
In Scotland, cases fell to the levels of the end of September, and have recently plateaued with around 40,000 infectious individuals.
In Wales, cases also to the level as the end of the September but they have started to climb again.
Prof Spector said it was “encouraging” to see falling rates, but warned against complacency.
“It’s encouraging to see rates are still falling across most of the UK, and we’re now below 21,000 cases, less than half the peak of the second wave we saw in October.
“However, while we are also seeing steady falls in admissions now, it’s important that we aren’t complacent.
“Even though the UK will start the vaccine rollout next week, many of us won’t be getting one for a few months, so keeping the numbers low and under control is really important for the NHS.
“I’m confident that Zoe’s app data really is the most up-to-date picture we have,” he said.
The most up-to-date figures were based on data from 11,124 swab tests done between November 15 and 29.
The Government’s tier system, which started on December 2, is to be reviewed every two weeks, meaning Wednesday December 16 is the first review date.
Any changes in tiers will be based on case rate data, local NHS capacity and recommendations made by local directors of public health.
Changes, decided by a Cabinet committee, will come into effect on December 19, and there will be four reviews before the issue appears before parliament again on January 27.